Mortgage Rates Today, Tuesday, June 16: Lower Still

Mortgage rates are lower this morning off of news that the U.S. and Iran virtually signed off on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. With Iran indicating that talks to resolve the conflict would begin after an in-person signing on Friday, it appears an end to the war could finally be in sight.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.27% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is seven basis points lower than yesterday and 19 basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Mortgage interest rates are already lower than we’ve seen in over a month, but we might not see them fall much further. For one, even though ships are already beginning to move through the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy is already dealing with inflationary pressures both from the closure and the overall conflict. Two, the way those pressures are playing out in the U.S. could mean that, best case, rates remain roughly where they are now.

For more on how that could happen, keep reading below the chart.

Average mortgage rates, last 30 days

🤓 Kate on Rates: June 11, 2026

📈 What influences mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

This is a big week for interest-rate-related news. The Federal Open Market Committee meets today and tomorrow, and it’s the first meeting for newly-appointed chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are currently predicting overwhelming odds that the FOMC will vote to hold overnight borrowing rates steady, but this week’s meeting will also bring a new Summary of Economic Projections featuring the Federal Reserve governors’ anonymized economic predictions. Though Warsh has expressed distaste for these predictions as well as for the practice of holding a post-decision press conference, he will be speaking this Wednesday and we are definitely going to be watching.

Even though the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, its decisions have a major influence on rates’ direction. Mortgage lenders often start pricing in expected cuts or hikes from the Federal Reserve well ahead of the actual announcements. If it begins to look like the Fed is likely to raise, that will probably increase upward pressure on mortgage rates. And despite the president’s relentless requests for lower interest rates, it’s looking more and more like the central bankers’ next move will be higher rather than lower.

May economic data, the freshest available, has shown inflation intensifying and a job market that’s improving. Supporting a faltering labor market is the Federal Reserve’s key rationale for cutting rates; lower interest rates encourage spending and hiring, which can boost business but also spur inflation. Raising the federal funds rate — which is the key short-term interest rate the central bankers set — is the Fed’s main tool for slowing inflation.

“The committee will be sussing out whether what we’re seeing in the [inflation] data represents something that will work itself out in time or whether it risks being persistent,” says Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet senior economist. Between that and recent employment data, “we know a rate cut is all but off the table.”

Here’s what could happen longer term. If the Fed decides that inflationary pressures are transitory or that this is a risk they can look through (to use two of the bankers’ favorite buzzwords), we’ll likely see rates held steady for longer. In other words, inflation’s a problem that will work itself out, so the Federal Reserve won’t raise the funds rate — but they won’t cut it either. A legitimate end to the war in Iran would make this scenario more likely.

Based on the data, that’s actually the better scenario. If inflation keeps accelerating or it seems like it’s becoming entrenched — people expect higher prices and change their purchasing habits, worsening inflation — the Fed will need to raise the funds rate. At the beginning of the year, that would have felt out of the question, but at the beginning of the year we didn’t know the country would be going to war.

Now, markets are contemplating the possibility of multiple rate hikes. An end to the war could pump the brakes on inflation, but it won’t be a hard stop. If there’s enough momentum, we could see inflation continue to accelerate for a time.

All of this removes any possible downward pressure on mortgage rates. For now, the Fed’s maintaining, so mortgage rates’ day-to-day movements are going to be influenced by events in Iran and the bond market. But if it starts to look like the central bankers will raise rates, mortgage lenders will almost certainly start raising mortgage interest rates, too.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.77% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

🔒 Should I lock my rate?

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.

🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

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