Investors will step into the trading week fresh off a peace deal in the Middle East and a surprisingly hawkish turn at the Federal Reserve, setting up for a market pushed and pulled in multiple directions — with investors left to figure it all out.
The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led gains on Thursday, picking up 1.9% for a five-day return of 2.7%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed Thursday 1.1% higher to end the week up 1.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ended the session up a smaller 0.1% to gain 1.4% on the week.
Things to circle on the calendar
It’s a packed week for economic data, headlined by the release of May PCE figures on Thursday. After both consumer prices and wholesale prices for the month read hotter than expected, the PCE figures — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — will be closely watched to see what insight they can offer into the state of the US economy.
Also on deck are manufacturing activity checks from S&P Global, the Richmond Fed, and the Kansas City Fed, along with the University of Michigan’s twice-monthly vibe check on consumer confidence and inflation expectations.
On the corporate calendar, earnings from Micron (MU) on Wednesday will be far and away the main event, set to give investors a read on the state of the semiconductor trade just after a rally on Thursday pushed Intel (INTC), Micron (MU), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), and a host of other companies to all-time highs.
Reporting its first earnings since going public, Cerebras Systems (CBRS) will share results on Tuesday in another test of the semiconductor trade. Investors will also get results from Fervo Energy (FRVO), FedEx (FDX), and Darden Restaurants (DRI).
The bull case for Micron
When Micron reports earnings on Wednesday, the company’s results will give investors a strong read on just how strong the demand for memory remains. Analysts are expecting to see strength.
“We believe DRAM bit demand is still set to vastly outpace supply growth in the coming years driven by more memory-intensive AI workloads,” UBS analyst Melissa Weathers wrote in a client note on Thursday.
Weathers raised the bank’s price target for Micron to $1,500 per share, representing a roughly 31% premium over where the stock traded on Thursday. Keep in mind, that will be on top of the roughly 360% the stock price has climbed in the past six months.
UBS isn’t alone on the memory trade. Even after some weakness in the sector over the past weeks, Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Western Digital (WDC) to $650 from $488, maintaining an Overweight rating and pushing the stock to an all-time high last week. In Asia, Kospi leader SK Hynix (000660.KS) raised unit prices after a request from its suppliers, as their costs have risen from tightened supply.
Joining his colleague, UBS analyst Nate Svensson noted to clients that memory prices have “materially increased in recent months as fabs shift capacity to produce high bandwidth memory (HBM) to serve surging datacenter demand.” Therefore, Svensson said, supply for memory is expected to be constrained through 2027 and into 2028, even with new supply expected to hit the market next year.
People view Micron’s computer memory and data storage products at the Computex Taipei trade show on June 2, 2026. (Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images) ·Anadolu via Getty Images
Gas prices fall below $4 per gallon
Gas prices fell below $4 per gallon on Thursday, reaching a national average of $3.99 and giving Americans critical relief just as the summer driving season begins.
The news is likely to be welcomed by consumers who watched prices at the pump climb to a national average above $4.50 per gallon only one month ago, per AAA, in the depths of the Iran conflict.
“National average prices … should head toward $3.70/gal now that a deal with Iran has been signed — andseeing movements resume in the Strait [of Hormuz],” GasBuddy’s Patrick de Haan said Thursday. “Good news for motorists. Diesel will soon fall below $5/gal as well.”
Driving the move: Crude oil prices have plunged since President Trump announced that Washington and Tehran have agreed to terms for a 60-day memorandum of understanding that seeks to end the conflict, now in its third month, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial passage.
Prices on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, have fallen roughly 13% over the past five trading sessions, putting them firmly below $80 per barrel for the first time since the early days of the war. Contracts on US benchmark WTI crude (CL=F) have shed a stronger 15% to trade below $75.
A screen displays the price of gas at a gas station on May 16, 2026, in Arlington, Va. (Al Drago/Getty Images) ·Al Drago via Getty Images
When will inflation slow down?
With the May PCE data set for release on Thursday, investors will finally have a more complete picture of inflation for the month, especially crucial as the Fed issues what economists have deemed a “hawkish hold.”
To recap: US consumer prices soared in May, with the month’s headline 4.2% year-on-year gain the hottest annual reading since April 2023. On the other side of the equation, producer prices rose at the fastest pace since November 2022 in May, gaining 6.5% over a year earlier as the Iran war continued to pressure inflation.
If PCE comes in similarly hot, that’ll be one more feather in the cap of the nine members of the FOMC who indicated that they see a rate hike coming in 2026 — a move the market has now fully priced in. Traders are now pricing a greater than 70% chance of a quarter-point hike by October, earlier than previously expected.
Just look at Kevin Warsh’s own statement during his first press conference as Fed chairman: “The Committee will deliver price stability.”
James Egelhof, chief US economist at BNP Paribas, said, “This statement, shorn of its Powell-era conditionality on the labor market, suggested that officials now see inflation as the primary policy risk and one requiring action even if that could pose a risk to employment.”
Arugula, kale, romaine lettuce, and salad greens for sale at a grocery store on May 24, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Al Drago/Getty Images) ·Al Drago via Getty Images
Economic data: ADP weekly employment change, week ended June 6 (+25,500 previously); Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, June (-23.6 previously); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, June preliminary reading (54.8 expected, 55.1 previously); S&P Global US services PMI, June preliminary reading (51.0 expected, 50.7 previously); S&P Global US composite PMI, June preliminary reading (51.5 previously); Richmond Fed manufacturing index, June (13 previously); Richmond Fed business conditions, June (0 previously)
Earnings calendar: FedEx (FDX), Cerebras Systems (CBRS), Carnival Corporation (CCL)
Wednesday
Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, week ended June 19 (-3.8% previously); New home sales, month-on-month, May (+3.3% expected, -6.2% previously)
Earnings calendar: Micron Technology (MU), Paychex (PAYX), Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI)
Thursday
Economic data: Personal income, May (+0.4% expected, +0% previously); Personal spending, May (+0.5% expected, +0.5% previously); PCE price index, month-on-month, May (+0.4% expected, +0.4% previously); PCE price index, year-on-year, May (+4.1% expected, +3.8% previously); Core PCE price index, month-on-month, May (+0.3% expected, +0.2% previously); Core PCE price index, year-on-year, May (+3.4% expected, +3.3% previously); GDP annualized, quarter-on-quarter, first quarter (+1.4% expected, +1.6% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ended June 20 (229,000 expected, 226,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ended June 13 (+1.81 million previously); Chicago Fed national activity index, May (0.14 previously) Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, June (8 previously)
Economic data: Retail inventories, month-on-month, May (+0.7% previously); Wholesale inventories, month-on-month, May preliminary reading (+0.6% previously); U. Mich. sentiment, June final reading (50.5 expected, 48.9 previously); U. Mich. current conditions, June final reading (48.4 previously); U. Mich. expectations, June final reading (49.3 previously); U. Mich. 1-year inflation, June final reading (4.6% previously); U. Mich. 5-10 year inflation, June final reading (+3.4% previously); Kansas City Fed services activity, June (10 previously)
