In a situation fairly uncommon for the crypto market, there has been little to no uncertainty as to the mid-term trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC). 

Generally, the prevailing sentiment has been that the world’s foremost cryptocurrency will be slowly rallying over the course of several months and that BTC will – at least one point – enter a parabolic rise before the spring is out.

So far, these predictions, largely driven by the halving event  – due in slightly less than two months – have proven correct, and Bitcoin has spent much of 2024 – and much of the final quarter of 2023 – rallying.

Bitcoin price chart

In the first three weeks following the new year, Bitcoin’s price has been shaky and the world’s foremost cryptocurrency even entered into a major decline shortly after the approval of the first nine spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S..

This uncertainty, for the most part, ended by January 25, and the coin has since been rallying. Year-to-date, Bitcoin is 27.74%, and its initial decline and subsequent recovery are well reflected in BTC’s 1-month price chart, which logs a surge of 33.94%.

BTC YTD price chart. Source: Finbold

Additionally, after trading mostly sideways in the last 7 days, BTC suddenly surged on the evening of February 26 and is 9.95% in the green in the latest 24 hours with a press time price of $56,396.

How much would a January 1st BTC investment returned

Given that Bitcoin started 2024 at the tail end of its Q4 2023 rally at approximately $44,000, a $1,000 investment in the cryptocurrency on January 1 would have, by February 27, turned into $1,276.76 – a 27.67% rise for a return of $276.76.

A similar investment timed to coincide with Bitcoin’s late January low near $39,500 would have, however, risen 42.70% to $1,426.97 for a difference of $426.97.

What is next for Bitcoin?

The general consensus for Bitcoin’s movements in the coming months is that it will, after climbing above its press time price, enter a significant retracing that is expected to persist until the eve of the halving, as pointed out by, for example, Rekt Capital, a prominent crypto analyst on X.

BTC pre and post-halving behavior. Source: @rektcapital

After the halving is complete, there is a broad expectation that BTC will rise at least to its old all-time highs above $65,000 but that it is also likely to surge significantly higher.

The predictions are mostly based on Bitcoin’s performance before, during, and after the previous halving, which all led to significant bull runs that saw BTC surge tenfold – and sometimes even hundredfold – in the months after the supply reduction.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.

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